NDAA Update Nov 5, 2026: Republicans have a ticking clock. What can they get done on defense?

Republicans have a ticking clock. What can they get done on defense?

Breaking Defense · Nov 5, 2026

Valerie Insinna reports that Republicans are under the gun to pass defense funding during the lame duck session following a crippling loss in midterm elections, but first they will have to square off against emboldened Democrats seeking to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and curb the Iran war. With only five legislative weeks remaining in the year, GOP leaders may make a last-ditch effort to pass party-line reconciliation funding and a fiscal 2027 budget before Democrats take control of the House and Senate in January. The Pentagon has requested funding via three vehicles — a $1.15 trillion discretionary defense budget, a $350 billion mandatory funding request through reconciliation, and a supplemental including $67 billion for defense to recoup Iran war expenses — and another key to-do is the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, an annual policy bill that does not provide funding but contains changes ranging from troop pay raises to defense acquisition reform. In a note to investors, TD Cowen analyst Roman Schweizer said a sweeping Democratic takeover is the "toughest" scenario for defense spending, the lame duck period is "now critical" as the "last shot at [reconciliation]," and both the NDAA and defense appropriations are likely delayed until early 2027. Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan reduced his prediction that further defense reconciliation will pass from 15 percent to 10 percent and projected a 50 percent chance of a government shutdown after the current continuing resolution expires on Dec. 11. AEI's Todd Harrison said Democrats have "zero incentive to reach any kind of a deal on appropriations" and that "You've got Democrats itching to find a way to curtail the president, in his ability to conduct the war. The NDAA could be the legislative vehicle where they try to put some of those policies into law," with Democrats possibly also seeking to reverse the "Department of War" rename. Washington Rep. Adam Smith, likely to become House Armed Services Committee chairman, signaled in a Wednesday letter that he would support a more restrained defense budget: "We must push for the development of a more realistic and sustainable approach to our national security — one that does not require a defense budget in excess of $1 trillion or one paid for with draconian cuts to critical domestic programs."