NDAA Update Nov 4, 2026: Sweeping Democratic takeover puts Pentagon's $1.5T spending ambitions and Hegseth's leadership under pressure

Nine stories on Nov. 4: Inside Defense's Tony Bertuca on Democrats' historic takeover of Congress in the midterms being likely to derail the administration's plan to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion next fiscal year, while giving lawmakers new leverage to scrutinize Pentagon leadership, acquisition policies and major weapons programs, the immediate question being whether Republicans can use their remaining lame-duck weeks in control of both chambers to pass a fiscal year 2027 defense budget before Democrats take over in January, Breaking Defense's Valerie Insinna on the Democratic wave taking with it a number of notable defense experts, with major reshuffling expected on the House and Senate defense committees in the 120th Congress, Democrats having at least 228 House seats (picked up 25 so far; NBC projects about 258) and a 54-44 Senate lead with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled, still short of 60, SASC ranking member Jack Reed, SAC-D ranking member Chris Coons and HASC ranking member Adam Smith all having won reelection and being poised to take over their committees, Smith poised to again become HASC chairman, HASC Chairman Mike Rogers having won reelection with the question being whether he seeks a waiver to stay HASC's top Republican (House GOP rules limit three consecutive terms as chair/ranking member without a waiver), Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins having lost to Democrat Troy Jackson, HASC tactical air and land subcommittee chair Rob Wittman trailing Democrat Shannon Taylor by about 2 points with 98% in (AP hasn't called it), if he survives he would likely seek the top HASC Republican spot, as have expressed interest Reps. Trent Kelly and Ronny Jackson, HASC member Jen Kiggans having lost to former Rep. Elaine Luria, and SASC member Sen. Dan Sullivan's Alaska race remaining uncalled, Reuters' Aatreyee Dasgupta on US defense shares falling Wednesday as the Democrats' midterm victory stoked concerns about pressure on Pentagon spending plans, Lockheed Martin down 6.5%, RTX down over 4%, L3Harris nearly 8% in morning trading, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman down 3% to 5%, the sector having benefited from Trump's call for a $1.5 trillion 2027 military budget, well above the currently approved $901 billion level, and the Iran war, analysts saying a Democratic-led House could subject defense budgets and new programs to greater scrutiny, and Jefferies analysts expecting the 2027 defense budget to be closer to the House's roughly $1.15 trillion proposal than the administration's $1.5 trillion request, and MS NOW's Jack Fitzpatrick on Republicans eying a partisan lame-duck reconciliation package after Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the Nov. 3 midterms, with Iran war funding, a debt limit increase, voting restrictions, crypto, and hemp floated, Republicans also facing year-end deadlines needing Democratic cooperation as government funding runs out Dec. 11 and Congress still has to pass the annual Pentagon policy bill, lawmakers scheduled to be in session only a few weeks before year end, Democrats possibly using must-pass measures as leverage and likely insisting on more votes to end the Iran war, the annual defense authorization measure, which expires Dec. 31, having stalled amid fights over the Iran war after Democrats in July blocked a motion to start Senate floor work on the bill and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats would not let it "become a permission slip for that recklessness that we see occurring in Iran," Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) saying lawmakers are prepared for work to go down to the wire — "When I was in the U.S. House, I was here in session on Dec. 31 at midnight... I'm guessing that's a possibility again this year" — and Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) saying Republicans should prepare a partisan defense-spending package via reconciliation, since bipartisan funding talks would likely stall into a long-term CR, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Emissary)'s Jennifer Hendrixson White on Democrats' first major opportunity to restrict military action or funding for the Iran war possibly coming during the lame-duck session after they won decisive control of both chambers in the Nov. 3 midterms, government funding depending on a continuing resolution that expires on December 11 that Senate Democrats may use as leverage to extract concessions on Iran, the second opportunity being the ongoing negotiation over the NDAA — a bill that has reliably been passed annually for sixty-five years — Senate Democrats having blocked the FY2027 NDAA Senate bill in July, largely over concerns about Iran (the article calls it the "2026 NDAA"), and likely continuing to use that leverage in the lame-duck session, with leverage to attach riders that limit presidential authority and funding on Iran if they threaten to block passage, Military Times's Eve Sampson on Rep. Adam Smith making Pentagon oversight a central priority in his bid to reclaim the House Armed Services Committee chairmanship, Smith in a Wednesday letter to Democratic colleagues calling for more public testimony from senior defense officials and the restoration of a dedicated oversight subcommittee, questioning the need for a defense budget exceeding $1 trillion, criticizing the president's battleship proposal — "We need an appropriate mix of high-end survivable systems and lower-cost attritable capabilities, not a fleet of nuclear-powered battleships as proposed by the President" — and saying he remained committed to passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act though working with Republicans would be "extraordinarily difficult," the NDAA remaining unfinished after Senate Democrats blocked a procedural vote in July amid disagreements over the war in Iran and provisions involving Israel, POLITICO's Katherine Tully-McManus on lawmakers returning to Washington next week for the lame-duck session to sort through must-pass legislative business including funding the government to avoid a pre-holiday shutdown and passing the annual defense authorization bill, after Democrats' overwhelming takeover of both the House and Senate triggered a shot clock on the Republican governing trifecta, and The Hill's Alexander Bolton on Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer saying at a DSCC press conference Wednesday, "We are going to end the war. We have some Republicans already who have joined us in ending the war, and the Founding Fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people," Democrats threatening to block the annual Defense authorization bill and Defense appropriations measure as long as the nation is still at war with Iran, and Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) saying "My own view is that if the war is over, then the opportunity for bipartisanship on defense authorization and defense appropriations is there. I think if the war's not over it's going to be extremely difficult," and POLITICO on top House Armed Services Democrat Adam Smith saying negotiators will face a tough road to clinching a compromise defense policy bill for President Donald Trump to sign in the final weeks of the GOP-controlled Congress, Smith saying in a brief interview, "It's going to be hard because the president's completely checked out," "I don't know what he's going to want. I don't know how we're going to figure out the money. So no, I don't have easy answers to that," the comments signaling uncertainty as the four leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services panels enter negotiations over a final National Defense Authorization Act when Congress returns for a lame-duck session before the end of the year, the NDAA being one of the few major bills that reliably becomes law each year though the Iran war and other rifts between the Trump administration and Democrats have complicated the process this year, and some Democrats having argued that the party shouldn't back an NDAA without significant guardrails on Trump, namely an end to the military campaign against Iran.

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